US Politics

With Trump's second term just beginning, prediction markets are already pricing the 2028 race—and the frontrunners may surprise you.

Markets give Trump about 6% odds of winning the Nobel Peace Prize this year. What scenarios could make it happen?

Markets put 30% odds on Trump's second term ending democracy 'as we know it.' What does that language actually mean, and what are forecasters pricing?

At 79, Trump is the oldest president in history. Forecasters give 20% odds he won't finish his term—what does that mean for governance and succession?

Forecasters give Republicans just 22.5% odds of holding the House in November. Historical patterns and current dynamics explain why.

With the 2024 election behind us and Trump beginning his second term, prediction markets are already pricing the 2028 Democratic nomination race. The field is wide open.

Vice President Vance leads 2028 Republican prediction markets, but at just 23% probability, the field remains wide open.

Forecasters give Trump's Greenland acquisition nearly 1-in-4 odds. What's driving the market, and what would it mean for Arctic geopolitics?

As Trump's second inauguration approaches, prediction markets reveal strong expectations for aggressive policy implementation, particularly on immigration.