The Longevity Gamble: 34% Odds of Healthspan Breakthrough by 2030
Markets give meaningful probability to anti-aging therapies that could add a decade of healthy life. What would it take?
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The Great Power Question: 28% Odds of World War Three by 2050
Forecasters give meaningful probability to great power conflict over the coming decades. What scenarios are they pricing?
Gaza's Uncertain Future: Forecasters Skeptical of Israeli 'Victory'
Over a year into the Israel-Hamas war, prediction markets paint a sobering picture of likely outcomes and Netanyahu's political future.
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View all →The Origin Question: Markets Give 27% Odds COVID Came from a Lab
Five years later, COVID-19's origins remain disputed. Prediction markets reveal how forecasters weigh the evidence on lab leak versus natural spillover.
The Next Pandemic: Markets Price 30% Odds by 2030
Five years after COVID-19 emerged, forecasters see meaningful probability of another pandemic before the decade ends. What are they pricing?
The Solar Surge: Forecasters Give 85% Odds Solar Dominates Renewables by 2031
The energy transition is accelerating, with solar poised to overtake wind and hydro. What's driving the shift and what are the implications?
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