The Grinding War: Forecasters See 40% Chance of Ukraine Conflict Ending by 2027
As the war approaches its fourth year, prediction markets paint a sobering picture of likely outcomes and timelines.
The Grinding War: Forecasters See 40% Chance of Ukraine Conflict Ending by 2027
Nearly four years since Russia's full-scale invasion, prediction markets offer a sober assessment of the Russo-Ukrainian War's trajectory. The numbers tell a story of grinding attrition, uncertain outcomes, and diminishing expectations of Ukrainian victory.
The Core Numbers
On Manifold Markets, with over 500 bettors participating, the probability of Ukraine "winning" the war stands at just 20%. The probability of the war ending before 2027 trades at 41%. And Ukraine losing the Donbas region at war's end is priced at 48%.
These aren't the optimistic projections of 2022, when Ukraine's successful defense of Kyiv sparked hopes of rapid Russian collapse. They reflect the brutal reality of attritional warfare.
What "Winning" Means
The 20% figure for Ukrainian victory requires definition. The market's resolution criteria involve restoration of pre-2022 borders and prevention of Russian territorial gains. By this standard, anything less than complete territorial recovery counts as something other than victory.
Alternative outcomes include:
- Frozen conflict at roughly current lines
- Negotiated settlement with Russian territorial gains recognized
- Ukrainian collapse with further Russian advances
- Protracted war continuing beyond the market's timeframe
The 20% probability suggests forecasters see complete Ukrainian victory as possible but improbable.
The Peace Talks Question
A separate market gives 36% odds of official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelensky before August 2026. Trump administration rhetoric about ending the war has raised expectations of diplomatic efforts, even if successful outcomes remain uncertain.
The gap between peace talks (36%) and war ending (41% by 2027) suggests forecasters believe talks might occur without necessarily producing agreements.
The Donbas Calculation
At 48%, Ukraine losing the Donbas at war's end approaches a coin flip. This represents a significant shift from early-war expectations when Ukrainian forces were expected to defend or even recapture eastern territories.
The Donbas calculation matters because it captures the likely terms of any negotiated settlement. If fighting stops at current lines, Ukraine loses significant territory it controlled before 2022.
Zelensky's Position
Markets give 72% odds that Zelensky remains in power at the war's conclusion. This relatively high probability reflects:
- Continued domestic support despite military setbacks
- Constitutional legitimacy despite postponed elections
- Western backing that depends partly on his leadership
- Lack of obvious successors who could navigate the current situation
The NATO Question
Ukraine joining NATO by 2030 trades at just 15%. While NATO has declared support for eventual Ukrainian membership, the practicalities—ongoing war, territorial disputes, alliance consensus requirements—make near-term membership unlikely.
This low probability affects the long-term security calculation. Without NATO membership, Ukraine remains vulnerable to future Russian aggression even if the current war ends.
Russia's Position
Related markets show forecasters skeptical of Russian collapse (13% by 2030) or expansion (20% for Baltic invasion by 2029). The base case appears to be a Russia weakened but stable, capable of sustaining the war but unable to achieve its maximalist objectives.
What the Numbers Mean
Taken together, the forecasts suggest:
- The war is more likely to end in compromise than complete victory for either side
- Peace talks are possible in 2026 but may not produce lasting agreements
- Ukraine will likely retain most of its territory but may lose parts of the east
- Neither Russia nor Ukraine faces imminent collapse
- The path to genuine security for Ukraine (NATO membership) remains distant
This is not the triumphant narrative of early 2022. It's the sobering arithmetic of a war that has settled into grinding attrition with no clear end in sight.
Analysis informed by aggregated forecaster data from Manifold Markets as of January 20, 2026.