The Nobel Longshot: Trump's Peace Prize Odds in 2026

On Manifold Markets, a well-capitalized market with $100,000 in liquidity gives Donald Trump roughly 6% odds of winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026. That's low—but notably higher than zero, and higher than many would intuitively guess.

The Historical Context

The Nobel Peace Prize has gone to controversial political figures before. Henry Kissinger won in 1973 while directing the Vietnam War bombing campaign. Yasser Arafat shared the 1994 prize. Barack Obama won in 2009 before completing his first year in office, a choice even he acknowledged was premature.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee has shown willingness to make politically charged selections, sometimes to encourage peace processes rather than reward completed ones.

The Bull Case

What scenarios could yield a Trump Nobel?

Ukraine settlement: If the administration brokers a ceasefire or peace agreement in Ukraine—however imperfect—the Committee might recognize the achievement. Trump has claimed he can end the war quickly; if he delivers any kind of settlement, the Peace Prize becomes plausible.

Middle East breakthrough: Further normalization agreements between Israel and Arab states, building on the Abraham Accords from Trump's first term, could merit consideration. The Committee has historically rewarded Middle East peacemaking.

North Korea denuclearization: Trump's first-term summits with Kim Jong Un produced little concrete progress, but if his second term achieves verified denuclearization steps, it would represent a historic achievement.

Iran deal: A new nuclear agreement with Iran, especially one that demonstrably prevents weapons development, could qualify as prize-worthy diplomacy.

The Bear Case

The 94% probability against Trump reflects several factors:

Committee composition: The Norwegian Parliament selects the Committee. Norwegian politics lean left, and the Committee has historically favored progressive causes and figures.

Controversy aversion: Awarding Trump would generate enormous backlash from the international community. The Committee, while occasionally provocative, typically avoids maximally controversial selections.

Achievement requirements: Trump would need a genuine diplomatic breakthrough, not just negotiations. The Committee has been criticized for premature awards and may be reluctant to repeat that pattern.

Timing: Nominations for the 2026 prize closed in February 2026. Achievements after that date wouldn't qualify until 2027.

What the 6% Means

A 6% probability means forecasters see roughly a 1-in-17 chance. That's not negligible—it's higher than the base rate for any individual being nominated, let alone winning.

Markets are pricing in the genuine uncertainty of geopolitics. Trump could achieve something prize-worthy. Or he could spend his term on domestic priorities while foreign conflicts grind on. The 6% captures both possibilities.

The Politics of Prizes

A Trump Nobel would be one of the most politically explosive cultural moments imaginable. It would validate his self-image as a dealmaker. It would infuriate his critics. It would force uncomfortable conversations about whether peace achievements should be recognized regardless of the achiever's other characteristics.

At 6%, markets say this is unlikely but possible. Given the stakes, that's worth watching.

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Analysis informed by aggregated forecaster data from Manifold Markets as of January 20, 2026.