Gaza's Uncertain Future: Forecasters Skeptical of Israeli 'Victory'

More than a year after October 7th, the Israel-Hamas war grinds on with no clear end in sight. Prediction markets offer a stark assessment: just 17.5% probability that Israel "wins" the conflict. This reflects not doubt about military capability but skepticism that military operations can achieve Israel's stated war aims.

Defining "Victory"

The low 17.5% figure requires understanding what "winning" means in this context:

Complete destruction of Hamas's military capability
Prevention of future Hamas governance in Gaza
Return of all hostages
Establishment of stable, non-hostile post-war governance

By these standards, military success in territory clearance doesn't constitute victory. The fundamental challenge—what replaces Hamas—remains unsolved.

The Netanyahu Question

A related market gives 34% probability that Benjamin Netanyahu leaves office before the war ends. This captures several scenarios:

Coalition collapse: Netanyahu's government depends on far-right parties with maximalist war aims. Centrist partners might exit over hostage negotiations or post-war planning.

Criminal proceedings: Netanyahu faces ongoing corruption trials. Judicial processes could force his departure.

Political pressure: Hostage families, military reservists, and peace advocates have organized significant protests. Political costs of prolonged war accumulate.

Health or personal reasons: At 76, personal factors can't be ruled out.

If Netanyahu departs mid-war, his successor would inherit an extraordinarily complex situation without having shaped the strategy.

The ICJ Dimension

A market on the International Court of Justice gives 15% odds that it will determine Israel committed genocide in Gaza. This is a minority probability but not negligible:

South Africa's case at the ICJ is proceeding
The Court has already ordered provisional measures
Final rulings take years but could shape international response
Legal standards for genocide are high; proving intent is difficult

The U.S. Involvement Question

A surprising market: 15% odds that the U.S. is "given control" of Gaza by end of 2026. This would require:

Israeli withdrawal or invitation
International consensus on U.S. administration
Significant American commitment of resources and personnel
Palestinian acceptance (or at least acquiescence)

Each condition seems improbable individually; together they're highly unlikely. But the market existing at all reflects desperation for post-war governance solutions.

The Humanitarian Dimension

A market on mass starvation (5,000+ Gazans dying from starvation) trades at 16%. This grim market captures genuine risk:

Aid delivery has been severely constrained
Gaza's economy and agriculture are devastated
Displacement has disrupted food systems
International aid faces access challenges

The probability suggests forecasters believe catastrophic outcomes are possible but not inevitable—perhaps because international pressure forces aid access improvements.

What the Numbers Mean

Taken together, the forecasts suggest:

Military action won't produce political resolution: Israel can clear territory but can't force acceptable governance outcomes.
The war's end is unclear: Without defining victory or defeat, the conflict may simply persist or fade rather than formally conclude.
Political leadership is unstable: Netanyahu may not survive the war politically, regardless of military outcomes.
Humanitarian catastrophe remains possible: Even if not probable, mass casualty scenarios from starvation aren't ruled out.
International involvement is uncertain: Neither the ICJ genocide determination nor U.S. administration of Gaza is likely, but neither is impossible.

Conclusion

At 17.5% probability of Israeli victory, forecasters see a war that cannot achieve its stated aims through military means. The path forward—for Israel, for Palestinians, for regional stability—remains deeply uncertain. Markets aren't predicting defeat; they're predicting that "victory" as defined is probably unattainable.

Analysis informed by aggregated forecaster data from Manifold Markets as of January 20, 2026.