Articles

Markets give a coin-flip probability that there will be more software engineers in five years. What does this uncertainty tell us about AI's impact on knowledge work?

Forecasters give meaningful probability to great power conflict over the coming decades. What scenarios are they pricing?

Over a year into the Israel-Hamas war, prediction markets paint a sobering picture of likely outcomes and Netanyahu's political future.

Markets give meaningful probability to anti-aging therapies that could add a decade of healthy life. What would it take?

Five years later, COVID-19's origins remain disputed. Prediction markets reveal how forecasters weigh the evidence on lab leak versus natural spillover.

Five years after COVID-19 emerged, forecasters see meaningful probability of another pandemic before the decade ends. What are they pricing?

The energy transition is accelerating, with solar poised to overtake wind and hydro. What's driving the shift and what are the implications?

Forecasters have essentially given up on the Paris Agreement's ambitious target. What does 98% probability of 2°C warming mean for climate policy?

SpaceX's ambitious Mars timeline faces forecaster skepticism. What would it take to land a Starship on Mars in four years?

Trump administration rhetoric has sparked NATO withdrawal markets. What would it take, and what would it mean?

Forecasters give 9% odds Bitcoin hits $1 million by 2030, but 52% odds it drops below $50k before reaching $200k. What explains this volatility expectation?

The most consequential geopolitical question of our era has concrete probability estimates. What's driving forecaster sentiment on cross-strait conflict?

As diplomatic options narrow and enrichment advances, markets price meaningful probability of Iran crossing the nuclear threshold.

Forecasters give meaningful probability to domestic political violence escalating to civil conflict. What scenarios are they pricing?

As the war approaches its fourth year, prediction markets paint a sobering picture of likely outcomes and timelines.

Markets give under 2% odds of a Fed rate hike and only 10% odds of a cut-pause-cut pattern. What's keeping the Fed stuck?

As global tensions persist, prediction markets offer a window into how forecasters assess the probability of nuclear weapons use—and what scenarios concern them most.

With Trump's second term just beginning, prediction markets are already pricing the 2028 race—and the frontrunners may surprise you.

Prediction markets are tracking egg prices as a real-time inflation indicator. What do $2.50 eggs tell us about the economy?

Aggregating forecasts from Metaculus, Manifold, and Polymarket reveals surprising consensus on AI capabilities and risks—and instructive disagreements.

Despite persistent inflation concerns and policy uncertainty, forecasters see low recession probability. Here's what's driving their optimism.

Prediction markets reveal asymmetric expectations for Bitcoin's January trajectory, with forecasters far more worried about $80k than excited about $150k.

Nvidia dominates AI chip markets, but forecasters see meaningful downside risk. What would it take for the stock to fall below $100?

As the AI capabilities race intensifies, prediction markets reveal surprising skepticism about who will hold the top spot on model leaderboards by month's end.

AI-generated music is climbing minor charts. Forecasters give 40% odds an AI song reaches the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027.

With the January FOMC meeting days away, prediction markets show strong expectations that rates will hold steady—and may stay that way longer than many hoped.

The AI giant has been signaling IPO intentions for over a year. What would a public OpenAI mean for the industry—and will it happen in 2026?

Markets give Trump about 6% odds of winning the Nobel Peace Prize this year. What scenarios could make it happen?

Markets put 30% odds on Trump's second term ending democracy 'as we know it.' What does that language actually mean, and what are forecasters pricing?

Prediction markets are tracking specific territorial questions in eastern Ukraine, with forecasters expressing skepticism about rapid Russian advances this winter.

At 79, Trump is the oldest president in history. Forecasters give 20% odds he won't finish his term—what does that mean for governance and succession?

Forecasters give Republicans just 22.5% odds of holding the House in November. Historical patterns and current dynamics explain why.

With the 2024 election behind us and Trump beginning his second term, prediction markets are already pricing the 2028 Democratic nomination race. The field is wide open.

Vice President Vance leads 2028 Republican prediction markets, but at just 23% probability, the field remains wide open.

Forecasters give Trump's Greenland acquisition nearly 1-in-4 odds. What's driving the market, and what would it mean for Arctic geopolitics?

As Trump's second inauguration approaches, prediction markets reveal strong expectations for aggressive policy implementation, particularly on immigration.

As the war enters its third year, Ukraine faces a paradox: remarkable political stability alongside growing uncertainty about military outcomes and Western support.

Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have shifted dramatically. The 'higher for longer' narrative is winning as inflation proves stickier than hoped.